Television CPMs Will Rise 30%+ Within 18 Months
Television CPMs will increase by at least 30% within the next 18 months as supply declines faster than demand.
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The Claim
Television CPMs will increase by at least 30% within the next 18 months as supply declines faster than demand.
Original Context
Part of the SXSW 2024 keynote argument about attention pricing. Vaynerchuk argued that declining linear TV viewership would create supply scarcity that drives CPM increases even as total audience shrinks.
"Linear TV is getting more expensive even as viewership declines. That's the paradox of a market that isn't adjusting to supply-demand reality because the buyers are stuck in legacy planning cycles."
What Happened
Television CPMs have increased, driven largely by reduced supply in linear TV and increased demand for premium content environments. However, the precise magnitude varies significantly by daypart, network, and measurement methodology. A 30% average increase appears to be an overstatement of the actual movement.
Assessment
The directional prediction was correct — TV CPMs have risen as supply contracts. The magnitude of 30% within 18 months appears to be an overstatement for the market average, though certain premium inventory segments may have reached or exceeded this threshold.
"TV CPMs are going up thirty percent while eyeballs go down. That's the greatest arbitrage opportunity ever created. The money hasn't moved yet. Move the money."
What Has Changed Since
Since this prediction was made, the underlying variables have either accelerated or begun to manifest in platform updates. We continue to monitor the outcome timeframe.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Works Cited & Evidence
Television CPMs Will Rise 30%+ Within 18 Months
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